About Pathfinders

With a focus on the economic and business case for transition, the Sustainable Markets Initiative (SMI) was founded to accelerate the achievement of a sustainable future. In its first five years, SMI worked sector by sector, creating industry and finance specific collaborations to drive results. As private sector efforts mature, the interdependencies across industries, supply chains, finance and markets has highlighted the need for a more integrated horizontal approach if systems-level change is to be achieved.

Aligned with the SMI’s mandates, the Terra Carta and Astra Carta, Pathfinders seek to address a systems-level problem/opportunity that no one company or industry can solve/address on its own. With a defined problem/opportunity statement Pathfinders allow the SMI to focus on crowding-in expertise and capability across the value chain within and beyond the SMI member and affiliate network.

AI for Transition

The market size in the Artificial Intelligence market is projected to reach US$254.50 billion in 2025 and is expected to show an annual growth rate (CAGR 2025-2031) of 36.89%, resulting in a market volume of US$1.68 trillion by 2031. The SMI is uniquely positioned to mobilise its CEO network and real‑economy platforms to bridge the gap between AI innovation and deployment scaling high‑impact, cross‑sector applications that turn AI into a practical accelerator of the global transition.

Astra Carta (Space Economy)

The global space industry was valued at $613 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach $1.8 trillion by 2035. The commercial sector accounted for the majority of the 2024 value with clear interdependency between Earth-based industries and space-based industries (i.e. satellite communications/manufacturing, Earth-based monitoring/imagery, launch industry/manufacturing, defence, transport, data centres). The SMI is uniquely positioned to deliver cross‑sector alignment between space and terrestrial industries, mobilising CEOs to integrate space‑based capabilities into real‑economy Pathfinders and scale space‑for‑Earth solutions with demonstrable planetary benefit.

Aviation (SAF)

Estimates vary, but recent reports place the 2024 market size for SAF between $1.04 billion and $1.85 billion. Forecasts show exponential growth, with some reports projecting a market value exceeding $15 billion by 2030 and others expecting it to reach over $197 billion by 2034. The annual volume of Jet A1 (conventional jet fuel) was approximately 348.75 billion litres in 2023. With global commitments to transition to SAF by 2050, even 10% of Jet A1 represents a significant market opportunity. To scale up SAF and improve the economics, there is a clear need for global coordination across markets and the SAF value chain. The SMI is uniquely positioned to deliver CEO‑level coordination across airlines, airports, fuel producers, finance, insurers and governments to de‑risk investment, strengthen demand signals, and accelerate scalable SAF production and deployment across global markets.

Buildings & Data Centres

The global green buildings and data centre market is projected to grow from US$675 billion in 2026 to US$1.64 trillion by 2035, driven in part by rising digital demand as data centres already consume around 415 TWh of electricity, roughly 1–1.5% of global usage. The global buildings construction market was valued at over $13 trillion in 2023, projected to grow to nearly $16.11 trillion by 2030, with key drivers including economic growth in China, India, and the US, as well as the increasing demand for green economy solutions. With the rise of Data Centres, AI, material innovation, renewable energy, architecture, technology (smart) and buildings standards, there are growing commercial opportunities for gains across all industries and geographies. The SMI is uniquely positioned to deliver cross‑sector coordination between real‑estate owners, data centre operators, technology providers, utilities, finance and insurers to define what “good” looks like, scale replicable low‑carbon and energy‑efficient solutions, and accelerate investment into green buildings and next‑generation data centres globally.

Carbon Removal Technologies

The global carbon dioxide removal market size is predicted to increase from US$842 million in 2025 to approximately US$2.84 billion by 2034, expanding at a CAGR of 14.53% from 2025 to 2034. The SMI seek to explore opportunities to scale up and finance Carbon Remove Technologies.

The SMI is uniquely positioned to deliver credible demand signals, long‑term offtake pathways and coordinated capital mobilisation by convening corporate buyers, asset owners, financiers and technology providers to accelerate high‑quality, durable carbon removal at scale.

Climate Security & Defence

The global defence market size is estimated at USD 2.75 billion in 2026, set to expand to US$ 4.27 trillion by 2035, growing at a CAGR of 5% during the forecast from 2026 to 2035. As capital is increasingly deployed to the defence sector, there is an opportunity to develop synergies with other industries in transition. The SMI is uniquely positioned to deliver cross-sector integration at scale, leveraging its convening power to align defence with adjacent industries and unlock coordinated investment, innovation, and supply chain resilience.

Oceans & Fisheries

The global fish market size was valued at US$758 Billion in 2025. The market is further projected to grow at a CAGR of 3.40% between 2026 and 2035, reaching a value of US$1 trillion by 2035. The industry supports millions of jobs and is a critical source of protein for over 3 billion people worldwide. With consumers and governments pushing for more sustainable practices, there is an opportunity to foster new markets, increase yields and further economic benefit from coastal development and tourism, sustainable fishing and Marine 5 Protected Areas (MPAs). To deliver these benefits, stronger financial modelling and business cases are required to attract investment and industry partnerships. The SMI is uniquely positioned to deliver commercially viable, investable pathways that align sustainable fisheries, ocean protection and economic development by crowding‑in industry, finance, insurers, governments and technology to scale responsible fisheries, unlock private capital, and deliver measurable economic and nature‑positive outcomes.

Methane (Energy)

At COP30 in Belém, Brazil, the Oil & Gas Decarbonization Charter (OGDC) released its 2025 Status Report, highlighting progress in signatory companies' emissions reduction plans, increased data transparency, and an estimated $32 billion in low-carbon investments in 2024. As of November 2025, OGDC unites 55 companies with assets in 100+ countries, representing around 40% of global oil production. Signatories aim to achieve net-zero operations by or before 2050, near-zero upstream methane emissions and zero routine flaring by 2030, and transparent disclosure of 2030 Scope 1 and 2 emissions ambitions. The SMI is uniquely positioned to deliver practical implementation support by convening OGDC signatories, financiers, technology providers and governments to turn commitments into bankable methane‑reduction projects, accelerate adoption of best‑in‑class monitoring, and mobilise capital at scale.

Nature

Nature-based investment represents a US$10 trillion opportunity by 2030, positioning nature as one of the most significant emerging asset classes globally (WEF, 2024). Realising this potential is currently constrained by fragmented valuation methodologies, limited price discovery for intact and regenerative ecosystems, and persistent regulatory and market gaps that inhibit scale. In response, the SMI sees a strategic opportunity to catalyse innovative financing models for high-integrity, intact and regenerative nature investments, while driving industry-aligned, nature-positive supply-chain transformations that embed nature outcomes into core business models. This work directly supports delivery of the global 30×30 biodiversity target, with a focus on mobilising capital and action across priority markets including the USA, Brazil, Australia, Indonesia, the UK, Canada, Germany, China, India, and South Africa, where policy momentum, natural capital endowments, and corporate engagement offer the greatest potential for scalable impact. The SMI is uniquely positioned to deliver investable, market‑ready nature opportunities by aligning corporate demand, blended finance, and capital providers to scale nature as a credible, profitable asset class across global markets.

Fusion

While estimates vary, investment in Fusion is expected to reach between $40-$80 billion by 2035 and possibly over $350 billion by 2050 aiming for commercialization in the mid 2030s. As the world races towards energy abundance, fusion has the potential of limitless energy to power the world with wide ranging economic benefits. The SMI will seek to crowd-in value chain players such as fusion companies, hyperscalers, offtakers, finance, insurance, utilities, and supply chain components to demonstrate commercially viable fusion technologies and plants globally. The SMI is uniquely positioned to deliver cross‑value‑chain coordination, first‑of‑a‑kind project de‑risking and early capital mobilisation to accelerate fusion from demonstration to bankable, scalable infrastructure.

Private Capital Mobilization

The private capital mobilization (PCM) ratio for climate finance from MDBs is only $0.38 per $1 of public finance in 2023. SMI is calling for a step change to a 5-10x ratio. In 2024, 123 blended finance deals totalled approximately $18 billion with median deal size at about US$65 million. Several deals exceeded US$1 billion, driving much of the volume show that the trend in blended finance is for larger deal sizes or “whale” transactions. Debt for Nature has seen over $3 billion between 2018 and 2023. For example, the "Galapagos Bond," a debt-for-nature swap, converted over $650 million in debt to fund conservation efforts, demonstrating a pathway to increasing the scale of such finance (noting growing shift to debt for development). This pathfinder aims to accelerate PCM by tackling structural inefficiencies, strengthening project pipelines, embedding 3 standardisation and crowding-in key players across financial sectors as well as industry project implementors. The SMI is uniquely positioned to deliver a step‑change in private capital mobilisation by convening MDBs, DFIs, institutional investors and project sponsors to originate, structure and scale bankable transactions across priority markets.

Grids & Interconnectors

The size of the renewables, grids and interconnectors market is substantial and growing, with significant investment needed to meet climate goals. The global smart grid market was valued at $37.76 billion in 2023 and is projected to grow to $215.11 billion by 2034, while the microgrid market was estimated at $76.88 billion in 2023 and is expected to reach $224.34 billion by 2030. The HVDC transmission systems market is forecasted to grow from £19 billion in 2025 to £52 billion by 2035. Global investment in power grid infrastructure was $310 billion in 2023 and is predicted to rise to an average of $600 billion annually to meet energy demand. Despite being a significant investment opportunity by 2050, financing models still need to be unlocked. SMI is launching a Pathfinder with an initial focus on North America and Europe and will be crowding-in actors across financial sectors and industry value chains. The SMI is uniquely positioned to deliver CEO‑level alignment across utilities, financiers, insurers, governments and supply‑chain leaders to unlock investment, remove deployment bottlenecks and accelerate delivery of modern, resilient and interconnected power systems.

Shipping

Global shipping represents more than 80% of global trade and is seen as the backbone of the global economy. The global Shipping Market is estimated to be valued at approximately USD 15.16 Billion in 2026. The market is projected to reach USD 31.49 Billion by 2035, expanding at a CAGR of 8% from 2026 to 2035. The annual volume of oil for shipping is 220-230 million tonnes annually (approx. 5% of total global oil consumption). With global commitments to transition to more sustainable shipping fuels by 2050, this represents a significant market opportunity. The SMI is uniquely positioned to deliver CEO‑level coordination across shipowners, fuel producers, ports, financiers, insurers and regulators to accelerate fuel transition pathways, de‑risk first‑mover investments, and scale commercially viable solutions across global shipping routes.

Scaling Innovation

The global opportunity from scaling and accelerating innovative and green technologies is substantial, representing a multi-trillion-dollar growth market as the green economy becomes a core driver of competitiveness and productivity. Many breakthrough technologies including fusion, hydrogen, space-based solar, genomics, and AI-enabled physical engineering are technically viable, yet deployment is constrained by slow regulation and the absence of strong first-buyer and demand-side signals. The SMI’s ambition is radical acceleration: shifting from incremental progress to a “Formula One style” model of rapid development, compressing traditional two-year demonstration cycles into a single year to unlock faster deployment and global scale. The SMI is uniquely positioned to deliver a step‑change in deployment by mobilising first‑buyer demand, financiers, and rapidly scaling breakthrough technologies from demonstration to global commercialisation.

Sport

The global sports industry encompasses a wide range of segments, including spectator sports. Sports market size reached to US $470 billion in 2024 and is expected to grow to US$617 billion in 2029 at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.7%. With over 4 billion sports fans globally, sustainable sport can be a differentiator in value creation and revenue growth. This Pathfinder aims to leverage the unique power of the SMI with finance, sponsors, brands, sports stars, sport bodies, events, media and industry to engage, truly showcase value and drive default sustainable through sport. The SMI is uniquely positioned to deliver high‑visibility, market‑shaping collaborations across sports bodies, sponsors, brands, athletes, media and finance to make sustainable practices the default across global sport ecosystems.

Water Efficiency (Industrial)

The industrial water management market was valued at US$ 10.63 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach $14.24 billion by 2024, reflecting a CAGR of 3.3% during the forecast period. With industry responsible for roughly 20–25% of global freshwater withdrawals and facing rising water costs (in some basins already up 5–10% annually), technologies enabling circular water use, realtime leak detection, AI-driven process optimisation and advanced treatment can deliver 30–60% reductions in freshwater intake and disposal costs. The economic opportunity is compounded by emerging offtake agreements, water credit markets and green-finance instruments that increasingly treat water efficiency as bankable infrastructure. The SMI will launch a dedicated Industrial Water Pathfinder to crowd-in technology providers, heavy-industry offtakers (mining, chemicals, food & beverage, semiconductors, data centres), project developers, utilities, insurers and financial institutions to accelerate bankable, scalable water-management projects worldwide. The SMI is uniquely positioned to deliver bankable, scalable industrial water‑efficiency projects by aligning demand, financing, risk‑sharing and technology deployment across high‑impact sectors and geographies.

Geothermal

The Global Geothermal Energy market size is forecasted to grow from US$141 billion in 2025 to US$ 269 billion by 2034, at a CAGR of 7.3% between 2025 and 2034 (Business Research Insights). The SMI is uniquely positioned to deliver early market signals, cross‑sector coordination and investment pathways that accelerate geothermal from niche deployment to scalable baseload clean energy.

Media & Communications

The Global entertainment and media (E&M) revenues are projected to grow from nearly $3 trillion in 2024 to $3.5 trillion by 2029, driven largely by surging advertising spend, live events, and the booming video games sector, according to PwC’s Global Entertainment & Media Outlook. The SMI will seek to engage media and corporate communications/marketing to increase demand for transition/sustainable alternatives to help drive market growth. The SMI is uniquely positioned to deliver mainstream visibility and demand‑side momentum by aligning media, advertisers and brands to normalise and scale sustainable choices across global audiences.

Fission

Annual nuclear investment must increase from ~USD 65 billion today to USD 120 150+ billion by 2030 to support new builds and lifetime extensions. When the full value chain is included fuel, services, advanced technologies, and power for data centres and AI the opportunity expands to a multi-trillion-dollar market, with estimates of up to USD 10 trillion over coming decades. Delivery is constrained by high upfront capital costs, project delays and overruns, immature supply chains, and fragmented regulatory frameworks. The SMI therefore sees a critical role in unlocking the clean energy market, inclusive of nuclear, while ensuring safety, supply-chain resilience, and sustained public confidence. The SMI is uniquely positioned to deliver cross‑value‑chain coordination, financing innovation and deployment confidence to accelerate safe, investable nuclear projects at scale.

Retail, Textiles & Artisans

The global sustainable textile material market is projected to reach a US$23 billion by 2035, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9.6% during the forecast period from 2025 to 2035. The growth potential of truly sustainable fashion has yet to be seized. To create new markets and to meet consumer expectations. Leveraging the learnings of the SMI’s luxury Fashion Task Force, the SMI will be crowding-in dynamic fashion leaders and high street brands committed to material innovation, sustainable production, and tracing products to place and artisans. The SMI is uniquely positioned to deliver new market demand for sustainable textiles by aligning brands, suppliers, finance and consumers around scalable, traceable and commercially viable fashion value chains.

Tourism & Hospitality

The global tourism industry is one of the largest economic sectors worldwide, encompassing travel, accommodation, transportation, food services, and related activities. The global tourism market size was valued at US$7.88 trillion in 2024 and is projected to reach US$11.36 trillion by 2030, expanding at a CAGR of 6.3% during the forecast period (2025–2030). Key growth factors include Asia-Pacific's rapid expansion (e.g., China and India leading outbound travel), tech innovations (AI personalization, online platforms), and sustainability (e.g., eco-tourism demand). Through tourism, the SMI sees an opportunity to further economic growth, transition, Nature preservation/restoration and consumer engagement through a default sustainable approach to coastal/land management, aviation, cruises, hotels, food, digital platforms and communications. The SMI is uniquely positioned to deliver market‑led transformation across tourism value chains by aligning operators, investors, destinations and platforms to scale sustainable models that drive growth, resilience and nature‑positive outcomes.